Erst vor kurzem erhob die EU Klage gegen Intel wegen angeblicher Wettbewerbsbehinderung, nun tritt AMD in einer Pressemitteilung nach. Schon seit längerem versucht AMD rechtliche Schritte gegen den Hauptkonkurrenten Intel in die Wege zu leiten, bzw. hat dies schon teilweise getan. Nun verschickte AMD eine Pressemitteilung, welche auf einer Studie der ERS Group basiert.

Laut dieser Studie soll Intel durch die Monopolstellung zwischen 1996 und 2006 mit Mikroprozessoren Gewinne von mehr als 60 Milliarden US-Dollar erwirtschaftet haben. Doch damit nicht genug erhebt die Studie weitere indirekte Anschuldigungen gegen Intel bezüglich der zukünftigen Marktentwicklung. So sollen Endverbraucher und Computerhersteller in dem nächsten Jahrzehnt über 80 Milliarden US-Dollar gewinnen könnten wenn sich der Mikroprozessormarkt dem Wettbewerb öffnet. Darüber hinaus sollen Endverbraucher in diesem Zeitraum mindestens 61 Milliarden US-Dollar und Computerhersteller weitere 20 Milliarden US-Dollar sparen.

Die Studie verkündet gewagte Zahlen und kreidet Intel indirekt eine starke Ausnutzung des angeblichen Monopols an. Zumindest einen faden Beigeschmack hinterlässt auch die Tatsache, dass die ERS Group mit AMDs externem Beratungsbüro O'Melveny & Myers LLP zusammenarbeitet, ohne dass dies zwingend eine Einflussnahme bedeuten muss.

Anbei zusammengefasste Auszüge aus der englischen Studie, in welchen die genannten Zahlen und Aussagen erläutert werden.


Monopoly Profits

Intel's economic return on its microprocessor business was calculated using publicly available information and standard economic methodology. The method begins with standard financial statements and derives from them the information necessary to calculate a firm's economic profits. It is based on Nobel Prize-winning research conducted by Merton Miller and Franco Modigliani and used by more than half the Fortune 1,000 firms to analyze their economic performance; Wall Street investment banks to assess potential investments; and leading management consulting firms, such as McKinsey & Co. and Stern Stewart & Co.

Intel's Total Profits (total return 25.95%) $141.8 billion

Competitive Profits (cost of capital 9.94%) - 54.2 billion

Result: Economic Profits (economic return 16.01%) $87.7 billion

Portion of Economic Profits Attributed to Assumed Advantages (5.0%) - $27.3 billion

Result: Monopoly Profits (11.01%) = $60.4 billion

Intel's economic profit ($88 billion) was calculated by first determining total profits ($142 billion) and subtracting from that value its cost of capital ($54 billion-which includes a normal profit), resulting in economic profits of $88 billion.

Intel's economic profit margin of 16-percent (the $88 billion) stands in stark contrast to the economic returns of 498 other public companies examined. Like Intel, they had capital of $1 billion or more in 1996. Of these companies, the average economic return was less than one percent. Intel earned an economic return higher than 99-percent of these large companies, including companies with strong brands, research and development, or intellectual property rights, such as Pfizer, Wyeth, ExxonMobil Corp., and Target.

Only four companies earned economic returns of 16 percent or more - Microsoft (38.25%), UST Inc. (28.54%), Coca-Cola Co. (16.58%), and Intel (16.01%) - and each of these companies has been associated with antitrust determinations. Of course, high economic returns by themselves do not demonstrate anticompetitive conduct.

To be conservative, the study next provided Intel with a generous assumption that 5 percentage points ($28 billion) of its economic return were attributable to legitimate advantages. That left the $60 billion monopoly profit figure.


Consumer and Computer Manufacturer Savings

The calculation of future consumer and computer manufacturer gains employed four conservative assumptions:

- Intel's price premiums would fall by 50% over five years; price premiums were calculated by comparing Intel products with their AMD counterparts.

- AMD's market share of units sold would rise from 27% to 35% over five years.

- Total industry sales would grow at only half the historical growth rates.

- OEMs would pass-through 75% of cost savings to computer buyers.
Data from 2Q2006 through 1Q2007 were used as the basis for projecting consumer benefits from increased competition over 10 years.

- Consumer benefits for 2012-2016 set equal to benefits in 2011.

As an example of consumer savings on a specific computer purchase, the study notes that consumers would save more than 1.5 percent off the cost of a $1,000 performance desktop computer.

Intel microprocessor ASP – 2006 $121.12

Intel microprocessor ASP - 2011 (projected) -$101.30

Total price reduction for computer manufacturer: $19.82 (16 percent less)

Savings passed on to consumer: 75%

Total consumer savings per computer: $14.87, or 1.5% of a $1000 (performance desktop computer)

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